Craig Hemke – We’ve Only Seen A Hint Of What Is To Come When The Fed Finally Pivots

Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to review the rally we’ve seen over the last week as the Bank of England pivot last Wednesday, emboldened market participants to assume the Fed will be forced to do a similar pivot at one point when something domestic breaks. He mentioned that this trading action we’ve seen in gold, silver, mining stocks, and general equities is only a hint of what is to come when the US central bank finally is forced to backstop a large enough economic situation.  


The nuance about the pivot is that, for now, the Fed must continue on with hiking and tightening their balance sheet, as they’ve repeatedly messaged their plan to still keep fighting inflation by reducing demand. However, when the pressure becomes too great to ignore, like it did in Japan, then Great Britain, and then Australia, then they’ll be forced to adjust this policy.  Many believe that will be a large catalyst for rolling over the US dollar, and rise in the precious metals, and the action since the BOE pivot indicates that is a high probability outcome.   We just saw the recent outperformance of silver over gold, when the shorts got squeezed, which was foreshadowed by the bullish contrarian reading in the COT reports for silver.  In addition, silver and even the mining stocks stabilized this week, despite the US dollar rebounding out of its downturn to move back higher again.  Gold also has reversed quickly after a brief dip below the key $1675 support, so all things considered, Craig feels we may have seen the lows for the year in the PM sector.


We wrap up with a look forward to tomorrow Jobs Report, and dive into how this number is essentially guesstimated using surveys and the “birth-death adjustment” of how many businesses were started or closed based on long-term averages.   Based on the negative birth-death adjustment seen last year in September, Craig believes there is high likelihood tomorrow’s number could disappoint to the downside, and that there may be some interesting market responses if that is the case.



Click here to visit Craig’s site – TF Metals Report.


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    Oct 06, 2022 06:07 PM

    I think 7th straight day of green thanks to EMOTF today. That’s 6 more than I usually have of green. The animals will come …

      Oct 06, 2022 06:13 PM

      Well done Lakedweller2. I had green days in the portfolio last Wed & Friday, and then Mon, Tue, Thu of this week, so 5 out of the 7 days. Hats off to you though for having 7 green days in a row. It’s been a nice change of pace eh?

        Oct 06, 2022 06:26 PM

        I am not going to quit until I tie JPMs ongoing record of every day green.

          Oct 07, 2022 07:03 AM

          Godspeed and Ever Upward!

    Oct 06, 2022 06:09 PM


      Oct 06, 2022 06:16 PM

      Oh no … please no more…

        Oct 06, 2022 06:11 PM

        Oh yes… Freaky Friday is upon us… Haha! 🙂

    Oct 06, 2022 06:16 PM

    All good stuff ………………jawboning and prognosticating about some kind of FED “Pivot” is simply a neurotic hopium high in the minds of greed thirsty wall street types, who have lost touch with the last 12 years of their snout in the FED punch bowl and just can’t bear to not get their 15% ROI this year……

    ……The inflation dragon is something of a monster not seen in many decades………….and main street and below are get clobbered into poverty lane…………….I really believe the FED is out to get their backs this time…………….and we haven’t seen anything yet…………….the inflation needle hasn’t even budged and we financial types are drooling for some kind of pivot………………what gives ?

    I think Craig was on the mark with his call for S & P 3000 in the end……………..which may actually reflect true 15-16X PE multiples in the REAL world without the punch bowl………………….plus I think it prudent to get bond yields up for pension plans to just survive ………….just a simple reversion to the long term structure of a balanced portfolio. There are just too many distortions out their……………….and the youth are just screwed if things don’t swing back into some kind of balance…………….

    Coming from someone who has taken a beating as well in my portfolio !

      Oct 06, 2022 06:39 PM

      Some good points LarryC, and yes, it seems like a larger number of financial institutions, private investors, and the financial media is hanging their hopes on the eventual pause of the rate hikes and then Fed futures are already pricing in where the eventual rate cuts may begin in 2023. There is a very large contingency of people that we speak to on the show, from various vantage points, that still believe that eventuality of the Fed needing to reliquify the markets, like they’ve repeatedly done in the past. This is seen as a potential oncoming catalyst to really get the PMs, cryptos, general equities to break out on the neg leg higher.

      The thing is that nobody really knows what will happen and on what timeline, but yes we’ve heard plenty of prognostication about what will happen, stemming back to even last year, when the Fed stated that they weren’t even thinking about starting to think about hiking rates until 2023. Then inflation was transitory… then they conceded along with Janet Yellen that they didn’t really understand inflation. Then it was going to only be 25 basis point hikes, but then ramped up to 50 basis points hikes, but then surprise they did 75 basis point hikes. Clearly the Fed’s jawboning was just that, and what they actually did was more important, and more predictable (that they’d wait too long, that they’d be wrong about inflation, that they’d be “behind the curve” in getting Fed funds rates hiked, and on and on). So you can’t fault some investors with their belief that if the Fed is saying one thing now — about hiking rates until they beat inflation by crushing demand… but that eventually they will give in to more easing when the market and economic pressures reach a tipping point.

    Oct 06, 2022 06:40 PM

    Fun interview as always. Good job all around.

      Oct 06, 2022 06:21 PM

      Thanks Lakedweller2. It’s always fun to chat with Craig.

      He had me chuckling when he was adamant about discussing the jobs report due out in the morning, and then went on to like the question he prompted about it right after, or when he was mimicking the market reactions of people on CNBC, or the messaging versus actual actions of the Fed. He makes me smile, while making solid points.

    Oct 06, 2022 06:26 PM

    Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare’

    Liz Capo McCormick – Bloomberg – Thu, October 6, 2022

    “The latest bout of global financial volatility has heightened concerns about regulators’ continuing failure to resolve liquidity problems with US Treasuries — the debt that serves as a benchmark for the world. It’s getting harder and harder to buy and sell Treasuries in large quantities without those trades moving the market. Market depth, as the measure is known, last Thursday hit the worst level since the throes of the Covid-19 crisis in the spring of 2020, when the Federal Reserve was forced into massive intervention.”

    “We have seen an appreciable and troubling deterioration in Treasury market liquidity,” said Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.

    “With rising risks of a global recession, escalating geopolitical tensions and the potential for further defaults by developing nations — not to mention ructions in a developed economy such as the UK — investors may not be able to rely on Treasuries as the reliable haven they once were.”

    “When the Treasuries market broke down amid a panicked rush into dollar cash in March 2020, the Fed swooped in as buyer of last resort. And while it now has a backstop facility allowing the exchange of Treasuries for cash, volatility, if extreme enough, could still force the Fed into action,” observers said.

      Oct 07, 2022 07:28 AM

      The Fed’s Reverse Repo Use Just Hit A Fresh Record Of $2.4 Trillion — Why That’s One Of The Clearest ‘Bad Signs’ For The Market

      Serah Louis – MoneyWise – Wed, October 5, 2022

      “The Fed parks excess cash reserves from banks in the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility. A reverse repo, or RRP, helps the central bank conduct monetary policy by selling securities to counterparties to be bought back for a higher price later on — essentially working as a short-term loan.”

      “The RRP facility was hit with $2.367 trillion on Sep. 28, higher than the previous record of $2.359 trillion set on Sep. 22.”

      “Investors are sticking with ol’ reliable cash in order to ride out the current economic uncertainty — but it doesn’t seem as though the market will return to normal anytime soon.”

    Oct 06, 2022 06:43 PM

    Japan’s Foreign Reserves Drop By Record After Dollar-Selling Intervention

    By Tetsushi Kajimoto – Reuters – Oct 06, 2022

    “Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record to $1.238 trillion at the end of September as a result of the government’s dollar-selling intervention during the month to arrest a sharp decline in the yen, Ministry of Finance data showed on Friday.”

    “The amount compared with $1.409 trillion seen a year ago and was the second straight month of year-on-year decrease in Japan’s foreign reserves, which is the world’s second largest in size after China. The decline in the reserves was reported after separate MOF data that showed last week Japan spent up to a record 2.8 trillion yen intervening in the market last month.”

      Oct 06, 2022 06:53 PM

      So there’s another central bank – the Bank of Japan, that is not afraid to intervene in their markets as systemic economic problems keep rearing their heads.

      The Bank of Australia just cut less than expected due to excessive volatility, and the Bank of England just did a pivot last week to keep their pension funds from imploding from unpayable margin calls. It’s not that extreme of a notion to wargame out that if the poop eventually hits the fan economically in the US that the Fed would take similar evasive action to backstop things from melting down.

        Oct 07, 2022 07:22 AM

        “All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”

        – John Adams, Letter to Thomas Jefferson, 1787

          Oct 07, 2022 07:23 AM

          “The Bank of the United States is one of the most deadly hostilities existing, against the principles and form of our Constitution. An institution like this, penetrating by its branches every part of the Union, acting by command and in phalanx, may, in a critical moment, upset the government. I deem no government safe which is under the vassalage of any self-constituted authorities, or any other authority than that of the nation, or its regular functionaries. What an obstruction could not this bank of the United States, with all its branch banks, be in time of war! It might dictate to us the peace we should accept, or withdraw its aids. Ought we then to give further growth to an institution so powerful, so hostile?”

          – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Albert Gallatin, 1803

            Oct 07, 2022 07:45 AM

            TJ just describing what happens when Criminals take control.

          Oct 07, 2022 07:50 AM

          Yes E$x, The financial system is being run by people who don’t know how to handle The Whip and The Bridle, to guide it where it needs to go. Simply put, they don’t understand the complexities they must deal with. DT

    Oct 07, 2022 07:02 AM

    Why The Bear Market In Stocks May Only Be Halfway Through

    Jesse Felder – October 5, 2022

    “There are a lot of different ways to analyze markets; fundamental and technical analysis are two of the most popular. Certainly, assessing the likely future path for corporate earnings and studying price patterns and momentum are both worthwhile if not crucial to successful investing. Fundamentals tell a story about trends in the business cycle and technicals tell you how investors react to hearing that story. Each, then, is most useful when viewed in context of the other.”

    “As to the fundamentals, history suggests that the rapid rises in the dollar, interest rates and oil prices over the past couple of years represent a uniquely bearish trifecta that will likely have a very negative effect on earnings over the next year or so. Long-term technicals, notably momentum, appear to confirm this analysis. And bearish fundamentals paired with bearish technicals may simply be an effective way of defining a bear market (better at least than the arbitrary 20% rule).”

    Oct 07, 2022 07:04 AM

    European Shares Edge Lower as Key U.S. Job Market Data Looms

    By Scott Kanowsky – – Oct 07, 2022

      Oct 07, 2022 07:27 AM

      Germany’s Economy Can’t Catch a Break

      By Geoffrey Smith – – Oct 07, 2022

      “Europe’s largest economy can’t catch a break, as fresh economic data released on Friday showed industry shrinking and consumers closing their wallets. Statistics Office Destatis said on Friday that industrial output fell 0.8% in August, more than expected by economists, as supply chain bottlenecks persisted, while exceptionally low water levels in the River Rhine closed a key transport route for fuel and other essential industrial goods.”

      “To make matters worse, the German government is also coming under increasing pressure from its EU neighbors about the massive relief package it laid out for its own economy this month, with outgoing Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and others lambasting it for a go-it-alone approach to the energy crisis that takes no account of the rest of the bloc’s needs.”

    Oct 07, 2022 07:23 AM

    Current Dollar Index target: 108.80 (recent 112.49 must hold).

      Oct 07, 2022 07:03 AM

      Nixed for now.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:33 AM

    TVE, Tamarac Valley, an oil and gas producer, doing well, I bought in under $4… at least oil is doing well. Might be time to take some profit.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:48 AM

    Today’s action is disappointing so far, even in light of the size of the previous weeks’ rally, IMO.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:40 AM

    Alternating day intervention. Fabricated reaction to fabricated employment #s. Fed Speak running rampant to justify false markets. Just another day. Jail will always be the quickest fix.

      Oct 07, 2022 07:51 AM

      Guillotine works much better IMO. No housing and food costs.

        Oct 07, 2022 07:54 AM

        Seems appropriate … 🙂

    Oct 07, 2022 07:17 AM

    The weekly stochastics for the miners are all pointed up now after coming out of oversold territory and are a long way from reaching overbought. The MACD is also on the cusp of breaking positive. Everything is aligned for further upside technically speaking.

    AG’s chart is one I am watching closely. It would have been nice if this week’s candle was stronger and actually managed to press up or through the upper weekly bollinger band, but as of now, its looking just ok. This week might even be seen as a failure in a way.

    Nothing easy in this sector unless you manage to buy in quantity at the absolute lows during a market wide crash. There hasn’t been a real trend one could easily ride, bull or bear, for 7 years. Enormous 6 month spikes followed by 2-3 year selloffs ending in mini cascades. Even the one decent run from 2018 to 2020 was interrupted by the massive covid crash. Adjusting for inflation and lost opportunity costs, and I would reckon there isn’t a single investor or trader who has made any real money being long this sector and likely many many more who are deep in the red thinking that they could ride a new bull trend.

    My own account, while up from the 2016 lows has basically been flat since then. Figuring in the lost opportunity cost of not being long general equities, as well as the increase in living costs, I am probably in the red.

      Oct 07, 2022 07:04 AM

      Yes precisely Green, very well summarized. Don’t get thrown off by comments to the contrary.

      Oct 07, 2022 07:17 AM

      Every investors journey is going to be different because they all bought and sold at different times. I know many investors that have made quite a bit in the resource sector over the last few years (me included) that bailed out any rough periods, and others that got their accounts pounded down into the dirt by purchasing higher and just sitting in them without taking evasive action or buying when lows and tradable rallies presented themselves.

      It is very a very dangerous proposition to extrapolate out one’s own personal experience and assume it is the same for everyone else. (ie… in this case the assumption that all resource investors are underwater for the last 7 years…. because they all aren’t).

      The resource sector is like all markets and is a dynamic casino, with winners and losers and some that just treaded water. It always has been and always will be. It’s just like with cryptos, or biotech, or growth tech/EVs, etc… there were big winners and big losers depending on when and where they got positioned, what actions they took after that, and if they harvested gains when they had them, or watched things do a round trip right back down.

      To assume there was only path the everyone took is a error in judgement.

        Oct 07, 2022 07:36 AM

        I’m not assuming only one path was taken. I’m just looking at a trendless chart within a fairly massive range since 2016.

        If you can consistently make money trading massive swings in a trendless market, good on you. I just don’t believe there are many who have actually done that. I don’t think I am going out on a limb on this.

        If the miners were actually in a trending bull market, the story would be much much different because even if you bought high, you know you will be able to sell even higher, because well, the trend.

          Oct 07, 2022 07:06 PM

          Well, I see it differently, because the major bottom in Gold was in December of 2015 at $1045, and despite the sector being a bit of a roller coaster, gold has been in an uptrend since that point, and the mining stocks since mid January of 2016. The 8 month rally from Jan – Aug 2016, was just the first leg up, then a consolidation for 2 years to digest that epic move (but still with tradable rallies for the Q1 Run of 2017 & 2018 and the 2017 late summer to fall rally); then the big move up from October of 2018 through the Q1 run of 2019, then another run higher from May of 2019 through early 2020, then the huge surge coming out of pandemic crash low in March of 2020 – August of 2020, and then in move in the silver stocks and some hybrid dual-listed stocks from tax loss selling Dec 2020 – the “Silver Squeeze” in Feb 1st 2021. That had a trend higher, where higher highs were made along with higher lows, in most metals and mining stocks, so I wouldn’t call that trendless.

          Now one could definitely argue that starting in August of 2020 to present we’ve been in a cyclical bear within a larger secular bull, but even then, we’ve seen a number of tradable rallies for months at a time since then — the aforementioned rally from tax loss selling Dec 2020 – the “Silver Squeeze” in Feb 1st 2021, the rally from the Q3 close in Sept 2021- November 2021, the rally from tax loss selling in Dec 2021 – March of 2022, and then the rally from July of 2022 – August of 2022 just a few months ago. We’ve also just seen a nice pop over the last week, especially in Silver and the silver stocks. So there were plenty of tradable rallies to profit from if one was following the oversold momentum and strength indicators on the daily charts.

          Maybe there weren’t as many that profited during this period since the 2015 as those that lost money, but I know people (even some guests on our show) that are still up from just 2016, and if you look at the ETFs and many of the midtiers, they’ve still not made lower lows than their Jan 2016 lows, so technically markets are still up for those of us that were buying aggressively in late 2015 and early 2016. Now not everyone trades every rally correctly, but there were plenty of opportunities, and there were many people that got more aggressive accumulating in late 2018 to early 2019 that had a big run higher from there for the next 1-2 years. I personally was quite aggressive buying and adding during the late Feb 2020 – April 2020 pandemic crash and my account moved up over 400% from just the pandemic crash low of March 2020 to early June of 2021 (granted I had done well in my portfolio also catching the moves in Lithium stocks, Uranium stocks, Copper stocks, Nickel/PGM stocks, and other special situation, so that helped boost the gains beyond just Feb of 2021 where many topped out in the mining stocks during the “Silver Squeeze.” Now since June of 2021 my account value has been chopped in half, but it’s still up over 200% from where it was in late 2015, and I’m not alone in that based on what other guests on our show have shared with us off-mic about how they’ve done for the duration of this bull market that kicked off 6 years ago.

          It also depends on if people traded the markets to generate additional gains, or just sat in positions as buy and hold strategy. Trading had people either underperforming or overperforming the markets so there are investors of both stripes. It also depends on if investors caught one of the hot narrative stocks before or as it was trending higher. There are about a dozen resource stocks in any given year that just break way up above the rest of the pack, and some investors didn’t do well for big periods of times, and then suddenly had outsized gains in 1-2 stocks each year that bailed out all the other bad trades.

          So again, I think investors that are still left in the sector, have had a range of experiences, good years and bad years, but many are still up overall for the last 6 years, even if they may be down the last 1-2 years. It depends on where one starts measuring from, but I think it makes sense to look at things from major lows like December 2015 at $1045 gold and Jan 2016 for the mining stock ETFS, as neither group has had a lower low since that point in time, and it markets the duration of the bull market. Again, one could argue that $2089 gold in August of 2020 is another place to measure from, it being a major high and note the last 2 years being an overall down-trending and corrective market, so I get that point.

          The reality is most of us here on this blog, and most of the folks that we bring on the show, have been in these markets for decades and not just the last 6 years since the major bottom, and not just for the last 2 years. As a result people entered this space far before the last 6 years bull market or last 2 year bear marekt…. so again, experiences have varied. Some were in since the dot com bubble popping in late 2001-early 2002. Others, like myself switched over from generalist investing to the resource stocks during the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis, and still others came into the space after than during the bear market from late 2011 – late 2015. Depending on so many different variables (time invested, when was capital deployed and over how many tranches? when were gains collected? which companies and commodities were people invested in at different times?) then there is a range of different experiences from big gains, marginal gains, people at a wash, marginal losses, and big losses.

          The may have been more losing investors than winners overall, but that could be said at any point in the highly volatile sectors like the commodities, because it’s the same exact story with Oil and Nat Gas investors over the last 6 years – some up, and some down, depending on how their journey went. It is the same things with other volatile “hot money” sectors like Biotech, Growth-Tech, Cannabis, Cryptos, NFTs, SPACs, Meme Stocks, etc…. Some investors set themselves up for a long time with outsized gains, others had marginal gains, others whipsawed back and forth in a channel, and some lost marginally or big.

          Now it should also be mentioned that in each of these speculative and cyclical sectors there are some people that come into the casino, plop all their money on one bet and then lose it all and then blow up their accounts. That would be the same thing as somebody going into a casino and betting it all on red on roulette, and then losing everything, so that is not really prudent risk management. I’m not sure I’d even consider people that came into the sector and did that investors, so their bad experience investing in the sector was self inflicted.

        Oct 07, 2022 07:40 AM

        I am wearing scuba gear. Different perspective.

        Oct 07, 2022 07:11 PM

        Obviously everyone takes their own path, there is no assumption made in that regard. The path taken by the market has been a downtrend. If you’re strategy is to benefit by buying and selling pop ups good for you if made a success of it.
        Judging by some of the more recent posting, including your guests, that crowd is withering.

          Oct 07, 2022 07:40 PM

          My account has been in a downtrend since January. It has been orchestrated intervention, just like the last 20 years that I know of. I don’t have a computer that accesses the exchanges directly.

            Oct 08, 2022 08:35 AM

            Yeah, it’s been a tough slog in 2022, but there was a rally in Gold, Silver, Copper, Nickel, Palladium, and Uranium stocks from January to March, so that was a nice rally to catch coming out of tax loss selling in December of last year. There were a few factors that went into that – the seasonality of the Q1 run in PMs and Uranium stocks, the Fed finishing up tapering and preparing to start hiking, but the the big catalyst was the reaction to war in Ukraine starting in February and then escalating in March.

            Now from late April to the first week of July was quite brutal for almost all resource stocks, and all of those sectors that had run in Q1, sold off in Q2 and early Q3. However, as discussed up above, I was busy buying the 2 weeks after the July 4th holiday, because things were so bombed out, and then we saw a rally in many of the mid-tier PM producers, royalty companies, and a few of the developers (and again the Uranium stocks) from mid-July to mid-August. I also was buying 2-3 weeks ago when things got fugly in late September, and we’ve seen quite a nice pop-up rally for the resource stocks since the Bank of England pivot on Wed Sept 28th… although it did get faded by the end of this last week.

            Catching those tradable rallies, and playing into the whipsaw, definitely helped minimize the losses this year, but it has still been a red year overall for me. Most of my portfolio damage I experienced though was not taking evasive action soon enough in the second half of 2021, more so than this year. My account had surged 400% from March 2020 – June 2021, but now it has essentially been chopped in half over the course of the last 15 months, but still up substantially higher than where it was a few years back, so longer-term still building value.

            I don’t want to think about where my portfolio value may have drifted down to though if I had just bought a basket of stocks and sat in them like a bump on a log for a few years, without reshuffling the deck or trading some base hits along the journey. Some investors are down 60%-90% in their accounts if they bought too high, and then didn’t take action to actively manage their account, but then again, many people really shouldn’t be managing their own money.

            It does seem like most of the damage to the sector has already been inflicted at this point. Not that things can’t always head lower, as that is the case in any market and at any time, but more so that that the hot money has been shaken out of this sector over the last 2 years, and most of the newbies that bought cult stocks into their blistering peaks in the summer of 2020 or since then in some of the popular narrative stocks have already had their clocks cleaned and exited the space blaming management, or newsletter writers, or gold sites, etc… (typical deflection), instead of admitting it was their own poor trading and bad entries when things were overbought, and then not selling soon enough to limit losses on the corrective moves.

            So because of this, we should basing here, after sentiment readings and breadth readings in the space go so smashed down late in September. Sure, maybe tax loss selling in late Nov – mid Dec sees a bit more pressure, but honestly, most people should already have sold their portfolio dogs by now, and since it’s been a bear market in almost all sectors this year except energy and utilities, then I can’t imagine most investors really have that many gains to wash out… which should keep tax loss selling more muted this year.

            Oct 08, 2022 08:32 AM

            I still am green for tax purposes as Jan was a good month. Most of my paper losses occurred Jan to current in Emerita but as the year progressed I cut my investment in half as they became long term gains and losses. Emerita had a great run in 2021 and got erased in 2022. The potential has gotten better despite the price suppression. I moved into some good stocks in the meantime that were also hit during the year. I now find it difficult to find things to sell to buy more”deals”. I began adding back some to Emerita this last week. Now just waiting for what should happen but knowing that if destruction of democracy is the goal, it may be a wasted wait. But then so would be everything else.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:55 AM

    SIL’s chart over the last 7 years is simply unbelievable.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:17 PM

    If the low in the SIL to Nasdaq ratio made last month gets taken out, I am done with this sector. There will literally be no reason to invest in this sector because in the face of every possible variable that could possibly go its way, it will have continued to collapse in both absolute terms and relative to just about everything else on earth. I mean, there is being a contrarian and then there is just being dumb and stubborn. The scoreboard at present and for the last decade hasn’t been pretty. Who on earth would have guessed SIL would match its COVID crash low relative to tech stocks, much less trade below it for four months! Talk about kicking bugs in the balls.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:36 PM

    All of the mining indexes are putting in massive dragonfly dojis vs the Nasdaq this week. What that means is that if you expect tech stocks to continue selling off, the mining stocks will in all likelihood sell off even more, at least for a couple of weeks. Also, the weekly bollinger bands on those ratio charts are still very wide and I would expect the mining stocks to basically match the Nasdaq’s performance over the next month, at best.

    Maybe we get a market crash into the November fed meeting, which occurs on the 1st if I recall. Based on the ratio charts, I wouldn’t expect the mining stocks to resist such a crash at all, and in the very near term they could so substantially worse than tech stocks.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:50 PM

    Picked up Viva Gold today. Read about it from Dave Kranzler. You had asked me once if I had any ideas below $10 mil market cap. There are probably a ton now, but this one has a share count of about 91.6mil with market cap of US$4.6 mil. It is in the Tonapah area of Nevada, southern end of the Walker Lane Trend. You probably have it, but it sounded like something you would be interested in checking on.

      Oct 08, 2022 08:05 PM

      Thanks for the heads up Lakedweller2.

    Oct 07, 2022 07:55 PM

    It’s no small feat that gold and GLD were able to close above their 200 week MAs after spending the last three weeks below them. As I said recently, the bulls are in control but it will be awhile before most bears figure that out.