Weekend Show – A Big Week For Central Banks, US Economic Data, Markets and Metals

February 4, 2023

Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show!


It was expected that this week would be a volatile one. With tech earnings, the Fed and a couple other major central bank meetings, US jobs data and the ISM data there is a lot to cover.


We start out with the macro picture then move into trading strategies for markets, metals and energy.



Exclusive Company Interviews This Week




Joel Elconin
Dana Lyons
Dan Steffens
    Feb 04, 2023 04:57 AM

    One has to wonder about the job figures that were released by The BLS yesterday. We live in a tailored manipulated world where we are led to believe in free markets, so the public believes that the system is self-regulating. It is so easy to tweak statistics.

    The Federal Reserve Board finally met the dilemma of having to carry on with quantitative tightening with this new ingenious scheme from the BLS. DT

      Feb 04, 2023 04:36 AM

      Things have now come to such a point that if they keep raising rates, they will run the risk of bringing about a smash in the market. They don’t want it to appear that they are the cause if this happens. Business, the public, and the government will be forced to pay a higher rate for funds.

    Feb 04, 2023 04:04 AM

    Steve Penny on Monday sent out alert looking for gold to pullback, he bought GLD puts, big winner.
    That a true technical guy reading charts.

      Feb 04, 2023 04:46 AM

      Paul, I shorted gold/silver big time recently and took my shorts off yesterday. Also, sold many of my mining stocks except for juniors that I’ll add to on further weakness.

        Feb 04, 2023 04:08 AM

        Doc, nice to hear from you. Do you see a shallow correction here with PM?

        Feb 04, 2023 04:12 PM

        Doc always like your view and wish you come on more often.
        Tired of listening to the puppet’s that call themselves technicians, they just go with flow and sentiment at time can’t really read the charts

          Feb 04, 2023 04:50 PM

          Yes “real” technicians like Doc tell us about their intelligent (supposed) actions after the fact and only after a win. Lol, how very useful and of course credible.
          At the very least you’d think he’d share that gold was a sell before it fell like Penny and I did.

            Feb 05, 2023 05:34 AM

            What are you talking about? He’s said for months this would happen. I’m looking forward to his monthly update. I appreciate your input as well Matthew.

            Feb 05, 2023 05:25 AM

            Liars poker. A common practice, usually follows technical savvy buying.
            Then you talk about the one that worked. Repeatedly.

            jon syl
            Feb 03, 2023 03:58 PM
            Good move on HL sell the 27th, not so Feb 1st. buy.
            Nevertheless the drop you hoped for has arrived.

            Feb 01, 2023 01:49 AM
            I dig the action. It wasn’t quite the drop I was hoping for but I still bought HL and SILJ this morning among others.

            Feb 05, 2023 05:54 AM

            Find it fascinating that you like to crap on everyone else who actually makes calls(many correct ones I might add) while you sit in cash and lose 10% annually as inflation erodes your purchasing power. You said market is boring and going nowhere and that you were staying out and loving it. Good for you. You need to go along with whatever strategy works for you. Your strategy requires the entire market to be moving up so it becomes a dart throwers market where everything goes up. Right now stock picking is key. My TFSA has never been higher. Mostly due to buying Magna in November while you sat on your hands. Feel free to be bold enough to tell us when you’ve gotten back in and what you’ve bought and not with hindsight. Cheers.

            Feb 05, 2023 05:56 AM

            What are you smoking? I’ve been buying multiple juniors day after day lately and was a buyer of HL and SILJ on the 1st and am still a buyer AND I still dig the action. Only sheeple, liars and maybe some daytraders stress about nailing the low and taking a full position in one trade. If precise timing was always my top concern I would enter every trade they way Rick Ackerman taught me to. It works extremely well and leaves nothing to bias.
            Again, you’d be sitting pretty right now had YOU been a buyer at all the significant lows during the summer and fall instead of crying in anger and fear.

            Feb 06, 2023 06:55 AM

            MonaL, since the last correction of this size 3 months ago GDX is still up 36% and was up as much as 50% recently and Doc’s remained bearish. The last time he appeared he said the worst should be behind us by this summer. It is my strong belief that the low is 4 months behind us and that this pullback is a great buying opportunity and will be short in duration. In fact the low is probably happening as I type this and if not it will probably be in place by tomorrow morning.
            This has been a simple/needed/necessary/healthy move back to the 50 day MA and EMA – the first in 3 months.

      Feb 04, 2023 04:41 AM

      Yep Steve Penny is a sharp technician, and he took a lot of heat over on his own forum for suggesting a corrective move was overdue and for taking out those GLD puts. Markets go up and down, and there is nothing wrong with playing things for profit from either direction.

      As we mentioned on here earlier in the week, Gold was really overbought on both the daily and weekly chart for a while, and Silver and the mining stocks had been stalled out and out of steam the last few weeks, so a corrective move after 3-4 months of rallying was expected.

      In addition, the Dollar was way oversold and due for a rally, so that is often a headwind to the PMs. Also, some computer algos trade gold futures based on moves in the dollar and 10 year treasuries yields direction. We saw both get a lift post Fed meeting and post Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report and ISM numbers.

      I had mentioned fortifying my JDST hedge last week and earlier this week and it grew from a 3% to a 4% and as of Friday a 5% position in my portfolio. As mentioned towards the end of this week, if it grows from here to a 7%-10% position, then I’ll pull profits on the short hedge in JDST, and then use those funds for repositioning into mining stocks that may correct further in the interim.

    Feb 04, 2023 04:03 AM
    Feb 04, 2023 04:12 AM

    HL Monthly buy signal almost after 18 months of consolidation. Notice monthly coppock is still below zero line and still very young in it’s phase.

    Feb 04, 2023 04:25 AM

    Tesla looks like it’s going to hug 200 WMA. Probably a good short then

    Feb 04, 2023 04:54 PM

    Silver tested and closed above 20 week EMA support but will probably poke lower next week before reversing.

    Feb 04, 2023 04:57 PM

    Silver challenged important fork resistance during 9 of the last 11 quarters as it builds what appears to be a giant bull flag…

    Feb 04, 2023 04:00 PM

    The same rising fork resistance that has capped silver for the last 2 months also capped it (perfectly) on Thursday…

    Feb 04, 2023 04:11 PM

    This is the best the dollar has looked since it topped last September but it’s not in the clear yet even short term.

    Feb 04, 2023 04:33 PM

    Good show this weekend.
    I’m out of all individual miner names, and have only a couple energy names.
    I’m holding North Am Natural Resources ETF – NANR. I see that Lyn Alden holds GUNR in her portfolio. Either one looks like a good hold for this decade of commodities.
    Chart: NANR / GUNR ratio.

      Feb 04, 2023 04:38 PM

      Thanks for that post IrwinW. I’m not familiar with NANR or GUNR, and appreciate you highlighting them on that ratio chart. Lyn Alden is a very sharp macro analyst, and that is interesting to learn she holds GUNR in her portfolio.

        Feb 04, 2023 04:48 PM

        Hey Ex; I’ll leave the link to Lyn’s Dec newsletter. The portfolio is shown about 3/4 way down the page. GUNR is 8% of her commodity holdings.
        She usually sends out a new letter about the 20th of the month, but she may have taken January off. Her pinned tweet (@LynAldenContact) from Dec 18 says, “My December 2022 public newsletter is out.” which is why I think she skipped January.

          Feb 05, 2023 05:08 AM

          +1 – Thanks for sharing that Lyn link IrwinW.

    Feb 05, 2023 05:12 AM

    Great week of guests and input as always.

    I took the opportunity on Friday to buy more Magna as I expect this week for the news to start flowing again with results. Have bought enough of it now that I have my long term shares and some short term as well that I can look to trade on every rally up.

    I could see PMs bouncing on Monday but worry that Powell will reverse his dovish tone from Wednesday and get more hawkish again when he speaks on Tuesday. All from what I consider illusionary numbers on Friday but the real truth with the economy can’t be hidden for much longer.

    Still favour buying more Magna and Emerita as I have enough PM plays……and am looking towards copper in the coming months.

    Short ramble. Time is the biggest limitation these days and know Ex will always go for a longer ramble. 😎

      Feb 05, 2023 05:15 AM

      Thanks for those comments Wolfster and yes I think peppering in a few diversifiers outside the PM’s is a good strategy. COPX has done well the last few months for the Copper stocks.

      You can be the long rambler this weekend though, as I’m worn out from a busy week and skiing most of yesterday. I already did my long rants on Friday and yesterday on the Craig Henke blog regarding the Uranium stocks. 😉🤑🤪

      Feb 05, 2023 05:20 AM

      Hi Wolfster, I am not convinced that Powell was dovish on Wednesday, he said, and I quote, “The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done, but its not done, Powell said; Core services, inflation, ex-housing has not come down. That doesn’t sound like a lamb or a dove to me.
      You need to get some ground penetrating radar, there are rumblings that you have conveniently let your mind skip over. LOL! DT🤣

        Feb 05, 2023 05:28 PM

        It’s all relative DT…….compare last Wednesday to previous ones since the rates have started moving up. That was the most dovish he’s been ….. or if it works better for you that was the least hawkish he’s been since rates have been going up.

    Feb 05, 2023 05:55 AM

    Patrick Karim Gold’s epic breakout line

    Feb 05, 2023 05:19 PM

    Newmont Mining announces $16.9 billion bid for Newcrest, this should get the snowball rolling down the hill. Yeah Baby! Give us M&A! DT

      Feb 05, 2023 05:18 PM

      Wow! That is a big deal with Newmont seeking to acquire Newcrest. They are 2 of the majors, and in the news it even described NEM as a “super-major” company. We also just saw the acquisition of Yamana recently by the combined efforts by both Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle for different assets. These are more transactions of the big boys consolidating the remaining big boys into even larger combined companies.

      It makes me wonder if the new combined entity will follow through on the all the JV deals with tinier juniors. For example, think about the option earn-in deal that Newcrest just announced with Headwater Gold… would that still be a priority for Newmont? Think about all the JV deals Newmont is in with Juniors… would they still be a priority after digesting all the projects from Newcrest? Usually, after 2 companies combine, the larger entity will also divest a few projects to the mid-tiers or smaller producers…. will we see any of that as well?

      We will likely see even more mid-tiers also try and do mergers of equals or strategic acquisitions to mass up in size into larger combined entities.

    Feb 06, 2023 06:33 AM

    Stock Market Is Basically Going Nowhere For The Rest Of The Year: Goldman Sachs

    Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Yahoo Finance Editor-at-Large – Mon, February 6, 2023

    “Investors have seen the best the stock market has to offer in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs.”

    “A soft landing — and in fact above-trend growth — is already priced in U.S. equities. Valuations are elevated vs. history and will be constrained by an eventual rise in interest rates. Even avoiding recession, earnings are unlikely to grow substantially in 2023,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a new note on Monday.

    Feb 06, 2023 06:18 AM

    Dolly Varden Silver intersects 15.94 meters Averaging 1,499 g/t Silver including 0.35 meters of 23,997 g/t Silver at the Wolf Deposit.

      Feb 06, 2023 06:34 AM

      Another nice silver drill hit from the Dolly Varden team continuing to expand Wolf deposit. Shawn has mentioned that Wolf may end up being another Torbrit-sized deposit if it keeps growing like this.

      > Looks like it may be the year of the Wolf after all. Haha!

        Feb 06, 2023 06:33 AM

        🤣🤣🤣. You know it.

    Feb 06, 2023 06:33 AM

    The Great Migration From ‘Flawless’ To ‘Hopeless’

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (02/04/2023)

    Feb 06, 2023 06:40 AM

    The basis for GLD is November 3rd.

    Feb 06, 2023 06:34 AM

    Good news out today in a lot of places. Opened green and it took 1 minute to take it red.

      Feb 06, 2023 06:28 AM

      Rotating a few profits and able to add some Magna to take those profits later.