Michael Oliver – Technical Momentum Setup In US Equities, Gold, Silver, Oil, Uranium, and Grains
Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, joins me to reviews how is seeing the setup based on technical momentum factors in the US general equities, gold, silver, precious metals stocks, oil and energy stocks, uranium and uranium stocks, agricultural commodities and grains, and the overall commodities sector.
He points out that the Fed party we’ve seen in the recent bounce higher in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is not confirmed by the underlying market breadth of the rest of the market this year, and on a momentum basis is not confirming a big leg higher and a peaking out in the near-term of momentum.
With regards to gold, he postulates that the reason gold has been so resolute in returning to it’s highs, compared to most other asset classes, is that it is picking up on the degradation of the value of the money unit. Michael also points out that on a momentum basis that silver has crossed a key level just in the last week. Additionally, the recent outperformance of sector leaders Newmont and Barrick over the general ETFs is illustrative of more generalists getting positioned in the gold stocks.
While Michael continues to see strength in the overall commodities sector relative other asset classes, he expects the monetary metals of gold and silver, the grains, and uranium to continue to have more upside relative to other areas.
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For all our Canadian and international listeners and readers…. we are thankful for all of you as well!
Ever Upward!
Michael Oliver – “The Biggest Bull Phase for Gold & Silver Has Begun”
Bullion News – Nov 21, 2023
We live in a World that I call a “Mexican Standoff”, no one wants to commit, in real estate the house prices must and will go lower but the sellers won’t sell, and the buyers won’t buy, but the bullet has left the barrel, and one side is going down. In stocks there are few bids, and the buyers still want a discount, but the game has changed. They will experience buyer’s remorse. The sellers know their turn has come so they wait. The bullet has left the chamber. One side wins one side loses. A typical Mexican Standoff.
Michael Oliver on Finance Log
“Gold prices in the early Asian trading session on Friday continued their rally, propelled by a decline in US Treasury bond yields. This surge in the precious metal’s value was buoyed by diminishing yields, igniting a strong resurgence in stock markets and lifting US government bonds from their 16-year lows. Yet, amidst this bullish trend, confident investors are growing concerned about the potential consequences of prolonged yield drops. There’s a prevailing worry that an extended period of declining yields might encourage the Federal Reserve to persist with a hawkish stance, potentially impacting asset prices in the long term.”
“Gold prices rose to their highest levels in more than two weeks on Tuesday, aided by a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields as investors look forward to minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for cues on its interest rate outlook. Edward Meir, a metals analyst at Marex, noted, “The dollar and US bond yields continue to decrease. Central bank demand remains strong. All these factors are bullish for gold. The market is reconsidering the recent drop.”
Michael Oliver – This Stock Market Rally is Delusional!
WTFinance – Recorded 13th of November, 2023
“During our conversation we spoke about Michael’s thoughts about the markets, why there is continued stress, what is happening with bonds, what assets will perform and more…”
0:00 – Introduction
0:49 – What is Michael currently seeing in markets?
8:42 – Largest companies holding up indexes. Will they remain stable?
17:01 – Has cutting rate/QE been good for equities?
19:02 – What happens when bond prices decrease?
24:07 – What will happen with bonds?
28:53 – One message to takeaway from our conversation?
Certainly thought I’ve kept up on listening and reading most of what’s being discussed so sorry if I missed it being pointed out and discussed. Kootenay has always been a topic here and it’s had a string of news between a share consolidation and some nice drill results. Anyone else have thoughts on all the recent news??? Ive never been a fan of consolidations cuz to me it reeks of past failures really. Drill results have been great and have boosted share price but I struggle with seeing it the price I’d dream it reaching preconsolidation.
Share Consolidation: Timing may be the issue. If the “shorting” issue actually is corrected, it may be a good time as price drops due to unfair trading practices could be an indication of undervalue. However if price is down because of funding problems and share dilution, then shorting probably will continue and the share consolidation just brings a brief extension of the same downward price spiral.
Possibly consolidating and having unfair price treatment will be offset by increasing prices of a bull market and less artificial shorting. That could work even better with a legitimate resource.
My experience has been that shorting continues after consolidation as the ones who short are drawn to consolidations. There are those like me that if you officially talk about “reverse splits”, I will dump the company as there are too many other choices.
But, if the trading field were leveled by stopping naked shorting and making alternative options of funding more available (assuming the company was worth funding), then maybe share consolidation would become less of an increased risk. There is always the possibility of a company being a life style enterprise and it could be the final straw.
I probably will continue to run from them until shorting rules change, intervention declines and Sector performance in general improves for Fundamental and Technical reasons.
Hi Wolfster. I agree, that in general, share consolidations are tough on longer-time shareholders, as it is difficult to get back to to the pre-consolidation levels if more equity dilution comes in on the post-consolidated shares. Of course, there are times where a company gets more traction and inclusion with funds post consolidation and if better sentiment shows up that a company can run and make up the difference. Also, if a company is doing a consolidation as part of an uplisting on a major exchange or for a merger transaction, then those are times where I’m more supportive of the share rollback.
With regards to Kootenay specifically, I invited the CEO Jim McDonald on the show last month for an interview, and the recent plan for the drilling focus and the share consolidation was discussed a little bit.
Here is a link to that interview with Kootenay for anyone that missed it:
When a share consolidation occurs, say at 10:1, I almost always sell before the event because of the psychological reaction for shareholders, unless it is like Ex explained for a merger or an uplisting. When you have 10,000 shares and it becomes 1000 shares it makes most investors feel much poorer, so they complain and sell, and the price of the overall holding drops. A reverse split absolutely affects the human psyche. DT
Remember The PDAC curse in early March, OH, OH!!!!!!! It is so important to know when to sell. LOL! DT😒
Then there is sell in May and go away, it might only be worth playing these markets for 4 months a year! LOL! DT 🤣
DT – good points on the psychological reaction some investors have to share consolidations. Even though nothing has fundamentally changed about the company or the marketcap, seeing the smaller number of shares does effect how some people feel, or remind people that they even hold the shares in the first place, and can create a temporary wave of selling.
I think the larger concerns many investors have, and rightly so, is that with the new tighter share count, that it then opens up the company to do more dilutive share raises in the future and that longer-term shareholders are constantly being diluted down in the overall percentage of the company their shares represent. As a result, some investors exit a position pre-consolidation, and then wait for the next financing to get repositioned or at least to average down into a better overall cost basis.
Good points as well Ex, I couldn’t agree more! DT
Wolfster, Kootenay’s share consolidation is one that I fully support and management executed it perfectly by announcing it with a resource update rather than another financing as is usually the case. With less than 46 million shares out and over 150 million ounces of silver (and over 250 million silver equivalent ounces) Kootenay should easily top its 2020 split-adjusted high of $5.40 during the next move up for silver. This is important because institutional investors are not allowed to buy penny stocks (stocks that trade below $5.00 are penny stocks.
Considering the already significant leverage to silver provided by all those ounces in the ground I hope management doesn’t feel the need to do another financing anytime soon.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p96291312177&a=1500622911
Biggest weekly volume in 3.5 years…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70210583570&a=1499109609
Was thinking about buying more right before the split. Wish I would have pulled the trigger. Still, I have a nice share position in Kooteney and I am not selling any.
I see the gold price has once again crept over, $2000. I’m trying not to show I care. Nobody Cares! DT
Gold’s Resilient 2023 Performance & The Seismic Shifts Underway In Global Fund Flows
@Goldfinger – November 23, 2023
“Years from now, we may look back at Friday October 6th, 2023 as being a pivotal turning point for both financial markets and the U.S. economy. That morning, the September nonfarm payrolls report was released, showing a stunning increase of 336,000 nonfarm payrolls in the U.S., defying the consensus estimate of 170,000. Earlier this month, we learned that the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised both the August and September employment numbers lower by a total of 101,000. It is possible that the surprising September number will be revised lower once again when we get the November nonfarm employment report in two weeks.”
“On the morning of October 6th, gold initially traded lower to $1823.50 but quickly changed direction and began to reverse higher, closing the session at $1845.20:”
“This trading session was particularly notable due to the fact that the vast majority of market participants would likely have chosen to sell gold in light of the stunning upside surprise in the U.S. employment numbers. However, that day proved to be the beginning of a marked change of character in the gold market – the ensuing rally saw gold trade from $1823 on the morning of October 6th to as high as $2,019 on the afternoon of October 27th (just three weeks later)…”
Take away the loss by Hercules and all other stocks broke even. Nice to see Thanks Giving not important to an algo.
Save Canadian Mining:
The Bad Guys are worse than we thought and they are across the board including brokerage firms and Market Makers. Previously we suspected politicians, hedge funds, Bullion Banks and The Fed. It is everything and all of them. It is theft and criminal.
Well who would have thunk…. 🙂
Some misc facts:
-Naked shorts/shorts can be tracked specific to companies and brokerage firm
-shorts average 52% of daily activity
-some naked shorts never covered but profits retained
-Market Makers sell their trading #s to multiple trading activities which can be off shore or in foreign areas without monitoring or regulation
– brokerage firms are aware of illegal trading but earn large fees
-Regulators just becoming aware of extent of frauds
-CEOs hesitant to pursue action as complex computer activity difficult to prove without great expense as violators are deep pockets.
– Current evidence has made it through a Court in US and can be used as legal standard
-Efforts underway to establish precedent in Canada wheee Regulation even more lax than US
-Board Members have fiduciary duty to protect shareholders and may be liable for failure to act
-Legal actions should grow which should increase Regulation and curb fraud
– some countries already moving toward banning any form of short selling and other Wall Street illegal price manipulation schemes
-Blockchain being looked into for new Brokerage firm model eliminating all the above activity and leveling the playing field
Other issues of manipulative trading fraud corrupting the Mining Industry. These were just off the top of my head things. Extremely corrupted markets.
thanks for the outline……
all good info. …
Price action is confirming momentum…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92189087106&a=1199723462
Happy Thanksgiving to all our US members of the KER crew!
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