Chris Temple – Fed Policy, Mid-Cycle Course Corrections, Inflation, The Great Stagflation, US Equities, And Commodities

Chris Temple, Editor and Publisher of the National Investor, joins us to share his main takeaways from the FOMC meeting this week, how any limited rate cuts may just end up being mid-cycle course corrections, the true reality as it relates to consumer pricing inflation, The Great Stagflation, and how this all ties into the general US equity markets and the commodities sector.   This is a wide-ranging discussion that gets into the divergence between the return to a more sane backdrop of interest rates and a more normal business cycle, versus what the markets are anticipating with a binary switch to cutting rates back down to pre-covid levels.  Chris outlines that Fed cannot possibly take us back to that kind of environment again, and that economic and market expectations will need to adapt to the changing multi-polar global economy.


He outlines some of the takeaways he had after attending and speaking at the recent SME “Current Trends In Mining Finance” conference in NY.  One of the recurring themes centered around the challenges in policy, permitting, and personnel bottlenecks standing in the way of getting more mines into production to feed the growing demand for critical minerals in North America.  Chris also points out that the western nations now need to rapidly play catchup and overhaul many policies to stimulate more domestic supplies or supplies from friendly nations of raw materials like lithium, copper, nickel, and silver, that prices will keep rising due to the supply-demand mismatches.




Click here to follow along with Chris at the National Investor website.

    Jun 13, 2024 13:01 PM

    Stung by Past Mistakes, a Wary Fed Takes Its Time
    Jerome Powell’s approach on inflation forecasts and rate cuts amounts to ‘trust, but verify’

    Nick Timiraos – Wall Street Journal – June 12, 2024

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s approach to cutting interest rates based on forecasts that inflation will continue moving lower could be summed up by the phrase “Trust, but verify.”

    “On Wednesday, officials held rates steady and offered little evidence that they were prepared to begin lowering interest rates soon, as their counterparts in Canada and Europe began doing last week.”

    “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would keep inflation rates steady for now and signaled the likelihood of one interest-rate cut for this year.”

      Jun 13, 2024 13:58 PM

      As far as The Fed is concerned, they caused this problem by pandering to the needs of the politicians and bankers instead of doing what they should have done which is to apply the bridle and keep their grip on it. Instead, they cranked up the money machine and pumped the economy with unlimited amounts of fiat currency, and only stood their ground when it was painfully obvious, they had failed. The Fed is a failed institution that gets too much respect for not diagnosing and directing the condition of the country’s business. DT😊

        Jun 13, 2024 13:52 PM

        The Fed has enabled trillions to be made
        by those elites that instigated it.
        A great success for them.
        Failure for the rest.

    Jun 13, 2024 13:39 PM

    The transfer of wealth goes on … delay, delay, delay. Sign of guilt.

    Jun 14, 2024 14:03 AM

    Michigan consumer expectations, sentiment and current conditions are all down today and significantly.

      Jun 14, 2024 14:53 AM

      Nat Gas making new low for today at support.

        Jun 14, 2024 14:31 AM, silver beta up weekly one year.

        Jun 14, 2024 14:35 AM

        Thanks for the chart! Site saved.
        Pressing down until Tuesday?
        ‘NatGas Week’ tomorrow.

          Jun 14, 2024 14:37 AM

          I’m heavy in but am down for now… it’s either up or a depression, 🤣

          Jun 14, 2024 14:49 AM

          These charts help a lot! Here is the one for silver. I keep finding new stuff the more I look.

          If we go up from here then Matthew will have made a great call.

            Jun 14, 2024 14:18 AM

            Yes. Great charts — real time numbers!
            Maybe consider KOLD as a hedge. BDC

            Jun 14, 2024 14:55 PM

            P.S. KOLD is difficult to trade for itself because of negative momentum tendencies, but to assist in gauging the end of a NatGas downtrend it works well.

    Jun 14, 2024 14:09 AM

    SHeeple do not understand the Crown Cabal…. which has been going on for centuries….
    Go back to sleep now…………


    Jun 14, 2024 14:22 AM

    Bob Hoye is calling for The Dow to crash in August, if it goes down so will shares of mining stocks. This game has so many moving parts. DT

    Jun 14, 2024 14:17 PM

    A lot of people expect a much deeper pullback for gold but I bet they’ll be disappointed.

    Jun 14, 2024 14:26 PM

    Rates have been falling regardless of the Fed and they are now about to accelerate their decline.
    The long bond is going to rise (yields are going to drop) more than most expect. TLT is now much more bullish than the following bullish chart depicts and that spells tailwind for gold.

      Jun 16, 2024 16:13 AM

      Thanks for those charts Matthew. What is price for TLT?

        Jun 16, 2024 16:45 PM

        A little over 104.20 was the high last year and the level was tested during each of 3 consecutive months and the current upper monthly Bollinger Band is just above 105 so I’m looking at those levels for now even though there’s a technical case for higher. And if stocks run into the kind of trouble that I think they will then TLT will likely go much higher than anyone currently thinks is possible. Gold would fly.
        This monthly TLT vs SPY chart is worth pondering…

          Jun 16, 2024 16:00 PM

          Thanks Matthew.