Weekend Show – Doc and Peter Boockvar – Markets, Metals and Economic Forecasts Through 2023
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend’s Show we are joined by Doc and Peter Boockvar. Doc sticks to the charts while Peter recaps a multitude of economic data, all with the focus on how it impacts markets.
As always you can keep in otuhc with Shad and I though email. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com an Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc kicks of the show with his outlook for gold, silver, gold stocks and the US markets.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report wraps up the show to discuss the different market environment that is here to stay. Higher rates, tighter financial policies and new market leadership all play into the longer term outlook.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Skeena Resources – Video Update – 2022 Exploration Review and 2023 Outlook
- Vizsla Silver – Updated Resource Estimate Shows Major Growth and a $39Million Bought Deal Financing
- Regency Silver – Drilling Started At Dios Padre To Follow Up On The 4.7g/t Gold Over 53.8 Meters Discovery Hole
- Triple Flag Precious Metals – 229 Royalties And Streams With 29 Paying Assets Post Maverix Metals Acquisition
- SilverCrest Metals – Q4 2022 Operational Results, Upcoming Technical Report and More Information On Holding Gold And Silver
- AbraSilver – Continued High-Grade Silver Drill Intercepts At The New JAC Target Building Towards A Maiden Resource
- Talisker Resources – Maiden Resource Estimate at Bralorne and The Potential Of Near Term Toll Mining
- Metalla Royalty & Streaming – 3 Asset Updates; Côté / Gosselin, Centrogold / Gurupi, Fifteen Mile Stream
- Minera Alamos – Comprehensive Operations And Exploration Update At Santana And Cerro De Oro
Pardu, I’ve been accumulating both over last year. On this recent move up by most of these mining stocks, these are 2 I didn’t sell. I’ll add some more when they fall further. I like fundamentally Fury the most. These are long term holds for me and will move more in the future when the general gold market recovers and have their next bull run. In this environment, any major news tend to be met with yawns.
As lithium is to EV’s silver is to Solar Panels, and why silver will ratchet up in the future. Chen Lin is always worth a listen, one smart investor. DT
Morris Hubbart showed a chart yesterday of Tower Resources (SYL-V.TWR) on 321 gold, a stock I wasn’t aware of but will look into this weekend, they have 3 exploration projects all in British Columbia, one in the golden triangle. They are all situated close to existing mines and infrastructure. DT
Wow – Tower really took off the last two days on extremely heavy volume!
Wow – Tower really took off the last two days on extremely heavy volume!
NatGas survives a deep retest!
More than a swing low?
PMs drift lower.
Added FCG (NatGas Companies).
Thanks BDC….I will look into FCG, first trust natural gas…. …That looks the way to go…….Because those profit margins will trade a bit smoother than the /NG price itself…lmao……This is a bit early for a true 3 year cycle low….but at least a bounce…I will let the 30 minute in relation to 240 minute chart take me out at extended pricing…if that occurs…thanks!
Larry, similar to PM companies, FCG may often turn prior to the commodity itself. Though the duration of current trending is yet unknown, possible and confirmed turns will again be noted. Turns become increasingly likely once saturation has begun. BDC
Say it again BDC?…Saturation is defined as=……..
See the Turns Table explanation (at the base). I have greatly simplified things. Any time saturation begins the door opens for a possible turn. However, although a most powerful indicator, saturation alone is rarely enough. Fibo levels, patterns, and trend lines etc. are included.
how do you define saturation?…how do you determine saturation?…
Larry, ‘saturation’ occurs when a formula I use is maxed out (100%). There are seven short term periods to which it is applied: 13-26-39-65-130-195 minutes and daily, all based upon the 390 minute NYSE market day.
MaxSat (maximum saturation) counts greater than one are shown (singles only at turns). Two or three days without saturation in a sector is usually a reset, ergo all the white space. When MaxSats appear, turn probability begins increasing. BDC
BDC…very impressive use of mathematics….any explanations of that unique system you created is welcomed, at least by me…..i simply use indicators, in my way, that already exist…you are at an other level when you are actually the creator…thanks!
It looks like the 38.2% resistance level will soon be tested. A strong break northward from there could mean that the January 24th ‘slingshot drop’ zone may be reached!
ok that helps BDC…i will save this page and then print out the meaning you defined!
Cool! Note that when grey appears a turn is likely, or has occurred; and when black the turn is confirmed. However, there are times, such as the recent deep NatGas retest, when black is reverted back to grey. BDC
Trading range bottom for now.
BOIL 100%. Partial stops.
Another deep retracement.
Backed off to 50%.
Anybody here have any input on what geranium is good for.
It is some critical metal.
And if these results from Cantex look too good to be true.
No idea about geranium Tony but do remember good old cantex. They seem to come out of the woodworks every 10-15 yrs and run the stock up on some story and then it fades away again
Yeah it was initially a Silver story, then a Zinc story (which was more likely), and now a critical minerals story with the Geranium…
Silver is still above its monthly KAMA as well as its 50 month MA and EMA. It did test its 42 month MA (similar to 3.5 year MA) and finished the week above it.
It should be obvious on the following chart that a much bigger breakout is still to come and the current pullback is what’s needed to make it happen.
Thanks for that chart Matthew. What are your thoughts on oil and gas these days?
I’m bullish oil but it needs to close a week around 95 to really get moving again. I consider it a weekly chart buy. I’m less bullish gas long term but it looks like it could do very well short to intermediate term. I consider it a daily chart buy. Both have work to do to turn their monthly charts bullish.
The last time I bought several pipelines, XOP, OIH, etc. was Oct/Nov 2020.
Gold and especially silver related remain my focus as both are on the verge of bullish monthly charts from a conventional perspective (and are already in the clear for months from a momentum-based approach). Of course “on the verge” on the monthly chart can be more than days or weeks.
Matthew, I agree on nat gas, I have a small trading position in BOIL and rally could continue in to next week. But I’m less bullish on oil stocks simply because divergence abound. I’m going to wait till spring or early summer before I start nibbling on E&P sector
Thanks for the thoughts Matthew. I sold Brixton at the last local top and have been buying back slowly. I like the 15 cent area on BBBXF, but think it could go a little lower. I like the Brixton chart much better than Impacts chart, ISVLF in my case as Brixton took out a few more local tops and as such don’t think there is any way for it to take out its lows. I sort of feel that it could have one more lower low and maybe get close to that gap on the weekly chart so I have been selling some recently just to lighten up a bit and get some cash in the account for some future buys. I also sold some of my HL at the more recent top and am looking to buy back and then some. The rest of my silvers I have pretty much left alone which include Dolly Varden, Metallic Minerals and Eloro Resources.
I bought a couple hundred thousand more shares of Brixton recently but agree that it could go lower under the circumstances (sector sentiment and no drilling for a few months). But it also wouldn’t surprise me if it has already bottomed for several reasons one of them being the price BHP and Crescat paid (which came with no warrants thrown in). And two more are the lack of enthusiastic large sellers and the potential for a near term important low in gold/silver that could easily help sentiment as it relates to Brixton.
Brixton is in it’s own bull market while IPT and many other silver/base metals centric miners are still waiting for silver’s big price breakout (momentum wise it is out) before they launch into another cyclical bull market of their own. Maybe IPT sniffed out this correction weeks ago as it lagged many larger companies and/or maybe the current acquisition was in the works for many weeks and that helped to keep a lid on it. I don’t know but can see why HL has moved like it has given that half or more of its revenue comes from gold and the fact that it’s by far the biggest and best US miner for silver exposure.
Good to know you are still loading the boat with Brixton
I forgot to mention I own Kootenay Silver also.
I have developed a healthy disrespect for the PM markets that will in the end make me more money. The disrespect allows me to go short at a whim instead of investing against what most central banks are trying to kill off. The chart is not going to smooth out and have a nice rising bias, it will likely swing back and forth as the Harvard idiots come out and spout their MMT crap. I have said before, the Fed is against Gold more than anything else, it’s the Volcker invocation… as Bob Hoye has said, Volcker did not do anything constructive, the business cycle killed the inflation and high interest rates itself.
Speaking of disrespecting something… CDNX
Yes, once again, the cure for high prices will be the high prices themselves, squashing demand.
Same thing with higher interest rates for longer…. the cure will be the pain that continues to be inflicted on real businesses borrowing costs, and companies or nations with debt that rolls over from 0%-2% rates to now 5% rates. Then there is the issue of the debt service payments of the US and the Fed backstopping much of this debt on their balance sheet that will soon be $700 Billion and then $1 Trillion as things compound, and then that is going to be the elephant in the room.
As far as garnering a “disrespect of PMs,” I’m not really prepared to do that, as they are one of the antidotes to this fiscal malfeasance from governments and central banks. However, just like any market, I’m more than happy to short it if that is the set up. Currently my largest single position is JDST, as a short hedge against the PM mining stocks, and it has now grown to a 5.5% weighting. I was thinking of trimming it back some on Friday, in case we see a bounce this week, but since it is a hedge position, I’m going to leave it on just a bit longer in case we see a bit more corrective action in the next few weeks. If the metals and miners end up surging, then I’ve got plenty of long exposure that will benefit.
CDNX, 2 year weekly.
CDNX, 2 year weekly.
Silver finished the week precisely at it 600 day EMA and just above its 300 day MA.
Response above. Not sure why my response came out where it did.
More Mega-Miner M&A During a Healthy Gold Correction
David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday February 10th, 2023
“With Gold Futures in the process of consolidating a 3-month $355 move higher that began with a $50 downside reversal on February 2nd, the world’s largest gold miner announced its intention to become even bigger on Sunday evening. U.S. based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) made an almost $17 billion offer to acquire Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCMGY), aiming to distance itself further from number two producer Barrick Gold Corp.(GOLD).”
“Newmont’s all-stock offer would be the largest gold mining takeover ever, and comes on the heels of another industry deal for rival Yamana Gold (AUY) completed recently that is set to close later this month. The offer from the top bullion miner could trigger bids from rival gold producers, but none would come from the most likely counter-bidder being Barrick Gold.”
Not much left for Barrick to buy except for Kinross, which he has been bagging all along. Maybe Bristow going to grab that, keep the Great Bear and flog off all the parts he doesn’t like.
Yeah, despite all his smack talk about Kinross, it would not surprise me at all to see Bristow at Barrick decide to acquire it after all, picking up a number of producing mines, and the Great Bear assets.
Well, then again, after todays press release from Kinross about the Great Bear maiden resource estimate only coming in at 5 million ounces (which is precisely what I expected), most investors are grumbling about it, and it does look like Kinross overpaid for GBR.
I had mentioned that takeout was the best possible exit strategy and outcome for investors then, but so many felt that GBR for sure had 8.5-12 million ounces and that Kinross underpaid (which was clearly hyperbole and poppycock, as todays reality news highlighted). It looks like Kinross botched another acquisition again, especially after all the additional drilling they had to do just to get to this resource, and it was summed up well by Critical Investor over at ceo.ca:
@CriticalInvestor – “What a joke this is, Kinross almost had to find their own resource again by drilling 250,000m, almost doubling GBRs drilling. Another failed Kinross gamble.”
You are forgetting Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Just in Montana they produced 570,400 oz, and 750,000 ounces from recycling last year of PGM at Stillwater (life of mine-2055) and East Boulder (life of mine-2066). The two mines have a total of 89.6 Million oz. of PGM in reserve. They also have big operations in S. Africa of PGM and Gold refining, not to mention Europe and Australia. Then there is the little explorer sitting next door to their sweet grass operations in Montana, called Stillwater Mining (PGE) waiting to be acquired. DT
Why not taking some African gold miners?
Gold Fields would be another candidate after the step down of the CEO
Mark Bristow should know them well
Yeah, that would be an intersting merger of majors if Barrick and Gold Fields combined.
Another on of the big boys that I’m waiting to see what happens with is Anglogold Ashanti. I could see Barrick being keen on their Nevada assets.
Definitely see mergers coming in Africa but looking more at the mid tiers and smaller ones …..orezone would be one I’d see on that list
Agreed Wolfster. I want to see some of the mid-tier producers start going after single-project producers (like Orezone) or smaller producers, and then some of the developers with good projects.
While everyone else want tier-1 assets Bristow just might do that.
Gold Prepares for New Record Highs
David Brady – Sprott Money – February 10, 2023
“In a podcast with Tom Bodrovics at Palisades Radio this week, I discussed among other things the pending change in the calculation of the CPI going forward. The plan is to reduce the “Owner’s Equivalent Rent”, or “OER”, which reduces the overall CPI going forward. It comes on top of favourable year-over-year comparisons that should lead to lower CPIs ahead. This is important because reducing inflation is suddenly the primary focus of the Fed and the White House after the Fed previously called it “transitory”. The Fed is still planning on getting the CPI down to 2% on a year-over-year basis, and now it looks like they could get there—or at least a lot closer to it—sooner rather than later. The headline December number was 5.7% and it’s expected to fall to 5.5% in January.”
“This could have huge implications for the Fed’s monetary policy going forward. They have suggested that two more rate hikes of 25 basis points are still ahead and, based on ostensibly strong employment data last Friday, that they could even increase rates further than previously planned. Powell clearly signaled at the FOMC last week that once they’re done tightening, rates will remain higher for longer. But what if inflation falls even faster than anticipated? Chair Powell could take a victory lap and begin hinting at a “pause” in rate hikes. Imagine what that would do for the markets. The mere mention of the word “pause” would likely send stocks soaring, yields lower, the dollar lower, and Gold and Silver would blast off in wave 3.”
No Matter How You Turn It, The Global System is Already Doomed: Got Gold?
By Matthew Piepenburg – February 8, 2023
“Below we look at the interplay of embarrassing debt, dying currencies and failed monetary fantasies masquerading as policies to confirm that no matter how one turns or spins the inflation/deflation, QT/QE or recession/no-recession narratives, the global financial system is already doomed.”
“As I’ve been arguing in report after report, my view has been that the US, with its 125% debt-to-GDP and 7% deficit-to-GDP ratios, was, and already is, in a recession heading into 2023, despite official efforts in DC to re-define the very definition of a recession.”
“But a recession is still a recession, and an elephant is still an elephant, and both are fairly easy to see at a distance. As of now, however, the recession has officially been avoided. How comforting.”
“As with the inflation data, it’s nice when the folks in Washington can exercise their magical powers to move the goal-posts in mid-game whenever a little ‘cheating’ helps their odds and fictional narrative.”
“For me, an elephantiac recession is now in the room…”
Ex – Thanks for posting that info on CPE. Leave it to the Gooberment to stack the deck to suit their needs rather than make hard choices.
Yep they are now going to calculate CPI in a way ignoring more of the real world that everyday citizens have to deal with regarding prices on goods and services to show that the number is coming down even more than it really should. If one looks at the way the pricing inflation really shows up in goods and services the way it used to be calculated in the 1980s, then we are still near double-digit inflation, but they’ve continued to find ways to minimize that for the last decade or two.
When this massaged calculation is coupled with the base effect of year-over-year metrics coming down, then they are going to try and take a victory lap that “they’ve brought down inflation” when really, they should be taking a walk of shame instead for having caused it in the first place.
What is Macy’s chart really telling you about the economy
The desperate remedy of fixing inflation has worked or has it. They want to get traders who had sold out higher up to come back into the market with new purchases, in the hope that the bottom has been reached. Without buyers you have no market and soon the sellers will be all that is left. It seems we are getting some reassuring statements from the seats of The Mighty Federal Reserve, but I don’t buy it. Inflation coming down and job numbers looking fantastically high they sure know how to hornswoggle the gullible public. But that is what the physicians have always used when they lose control. The Central Bankers have had their hands full plugging up air holes by buying stocks which are offered for sale without hardly any buyers. They will soon see a flood of dollars migrating back from Asia because they want to get rid of their American currency before Uncle Sam freezes their accounts like they did to Russia especially if there is a war with China. All that liquidity reaching the US shore is going to ignite a firestorm of inflation.
Still the ever-consuming problem of the debt bomb keeps growing and increasing, it will be dealt with but not on The Federal Reserve’s terms, but by a terrific “SMASH”. DT
That’s a good point about all those offshore dollars returning home to buy up assets. Asians like PM’s, commodities and they’re hungry.
Canada is supposed to have a 2% target inflation rate. Can’t imagine that being attained even with a slowdown. Cheap energy is fueled by cheap debt and good supply lines which no longer exists. China has exported deflation to the world with cheap manufacturing which is probably gone too. Canada or the US cannot meet low inflation because of debt service cost.
I am considering cash rich nat gas stocks, anyone else?
It’s attainable Steve …..see above….they just manipulate the calculation til it fits their framework.
Using energy cost calculations, it is easy to falsify electric vehicles powered by Lithium/Rare Earth batteries as a good idea. It takes 800 times the energy capacity of the battery just to mine the materials to create it. This does not include any of the energy to fabricate it, move it into use, et al. So to pay back the energy investment, each battery would have to be completely drained by use and recharged at a minimum of 801 times. The problem is that the materials of the battery are exhausted by the recharging process in only a small fraction of those complete re-charges.
Seems that the last mid size royalty company is gone
Yeah, the transaction to combine Triple Flag and Maverix was announced last November, and just was completed in January. That was right after Nomad had been acquired and merged with Sandstorm. I had heavier weightings in both Maverix and Nomad and it was bittersweet to see the takeover premium, as I believed they’d both have more torque by staying separate and allowing their development pipelines to mature.
There were other royalty acquisitions I was in the last 2 years where it made more sense to bolt them on to larger companies like Ely Gold takeover and Golden Valley/Abitibi Royalties takeover by Gold Royalty Corp. However, I was glad that Elemental staved off the hostile bid from GROY, and instead, mergered with Altus to become the new combined Elemental Altus Royalties corp.
However there are still other mid-tier royalty companies left like Metalla, Gold Royalty Corp, Elemental Altus, Ecora, Vox, and Trident Royalties. Also Altius Minerals is like a very large mid-tier or a smallish major with just over a billion dollar market cap.
There are also a few smaller royalty companies that could get scooped up eventually like Sailfish, Star Royalties, Empress Royalty, Globex, Eagle Plains, Orogen Royalties, Strategic Metals, etc…
With regards to the new combined Triple Flag & Maverix moves TFPM into the 4th largest royalty major now, with a larger market cap than both Osisko Gold Royalties and Sandstorm, and only surpassed by Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals.
>> We actually just had the CEO and Founder of Triple Flag Precious Metals on the KE Report this last week:
Did anyone listen to the interview of Lynette Zang by Charlotte McLeod recently where Lynette talked about the “reset” of interest rates on all US Contracts on June 30th. It sounded to me like that meant Auto Loans, Credit Cards, Home Loans and Business Contracts, etc. Evidently some dispute with Wall Street and Libor. (Wall Street probably trying to drive defaults my guess).
This could be disastrous, particularly for those on fixed incomes.
Maybe I am the last to hear but I don’t recall this being discussed by anyone in any form of media. (Any one mention this at any if the recent conferences).
Just found it in a search, and will post it here based on your recommendation, but I’ve not listened to it yet.
Lynette Zang: A Tectonic Shift is Brewing, Get Outside the System Now
Thanks for the post. Your Kitco interview goes into the discussion more thoroughly. Appears to be a lot of issues our Central Bankers don’t think the people need to know about how they purpose to “take control of our property”.
Here is more porn doom from Lynette Zang. There is much much more of the same during her very long career with her firm dating back years. You can even make a contribution to them to spread the gospel.
Mark June 30, 2023 on your calendars for the Black Swan event of the century.
This link is all about Silver. Should give Green some hope. All you got to do is hang on.
GDX fell to a zone of multiple supports the most important of the bunch on the following chart being the green one (followed by the blue then grey then red)…
Bubba tells it like it is:
Hope everybody has their Magna shares. This week looks like the start of the next upleg as the newsflow starts again.
Got a few I need to transfer back in on one of those +100% trades tomorrow. Magna is about the only one left in that category so ready to ride.
Haha! I have a hundred Magna shares, but somehow I don’t think you are talking about these:
I called SOXX a sell vs Silver the other day and so far so good…
Last week was a bear trap for stonks. I’ve been long on Semis since December and I believe we will see upside till May. I also believe PM sector will see correction much deeper than people like to think.
I don’t see a trap in SPY as it only pulled back to the daily KAMA and didn’t even reach the 20 day MA. Now it’s has what might soon prove to be a bull flag but will that be enough to keep it going higher versus silver? Maybe but I doubt for long.
Palladium continues its precipitous drop.
Industrial retooling away from it?
A coming EV revolution?
The travel decline?
Palladium…. not looking good….
Wonder what happens when palladium gets closer in price to platinum ….. humm
Does anybody here have shares in Magna? Just Kidding! DT
Brixton, BBB, chart is looking good, IMO.
Brixton again with Ichimoku
Defiance Silver, DEF…
Flying Nickel. FLYN.v
FLYN, this should be the right chart…
B2 Gold to buy Sabina Gold and Silver in $824 million deal. DT
I just saw your post DT, but I had gone on a big rant about mergers and acquisitions over on the Elemental Altus thread just a little while ago.
We discussed some of the royalty acquisition/mergers in that interview, and we’ve discussed some of the Mega-Mergers lately with Yamana/Agnico Eagle/Pan American Silver, and Newmont/Newcrest.
However today was very instructive for investors paying attention to how and where the Maiden Resource Estimate came in for Great Bear, after Kinross overpaid, and the resource came in far below the pie-in-the-sky retail hordes had hoped for. In contrast, the B2Gold acquisition/merger of Sabina for nearly twice as much gold at a better price tag made far more sense and was an accretive acquisition. I always thought it was going to be Agnico Eagle that took over Sabina, but good on B2Gold for striking while it was still so undervalued.
Again, I went into much more detail in reflections on M&A over on the Elemental Altus blog.
I was going to post that,…….but,,,,,I thought everyone already knew that….. B2 Gold….
Santacruz, SCZ. I’ve been sneaking back into scuzzy lately.
It sure has been looking “scuzzy” lately. It has been trading like a game of monopoly, most of these juniors are meant to be traded and not kept. If you get a profit of 25-50%, SELL! LOL! DT
Athabasca Oil. ATH.to. This is a dream chart for a buy and holder, I bought and sold a couple times in this but would have made way more by hofdl, haha.
The PM stocks have definitely been ‘buy the dips and sell the rips’ as Ex puts it.
Even ATH has been a ‘buy the dip and sell the rip’ market.
ATH one year chart.
This is the right chart, darned cat has been sitting in front of my screen this am, haha…
25% on a junior … that sounds like a 1% clearance sale on 10 day expired chicken wings at Walmart.🥱
Then hold on to your Magna for a ten bagger! LOL! DT
I actually added more to scuzzy Santacruz Silver today as it has pulled back down nicely for accumulation. I had sold it to pull profits in early December, and have been scaling back into since early January, but am still building back up to the position and weighting I had in it at the end of last year.
MMs appear to want you to sell and keep price a moving target down ….but, on the other hand don’t want you to buy. Volume low but not sure if interest is low. OTC slower about things than Cad.
If you want to buy and hold you need physical, or the Majors. The Majors still come with some risk but not as much, as the junior explorers, the developers, and most of the small to mid-producers, and therefore are trading vehicles. Physical precious metal held away from third party deposit is by far the safest, and probably the wisest for 95% of the population. DT
The PM market is like golf for me, I play both but don’t recommend either to anybody.
I like that comment… going to borrow it.
Good one Dan! 🙂
Go down to your bank and ask them what they will give you for your money left with them and then subtract the rate of inflation, if you can make 25-50% on trading any stock these days that is HUGE. If you leave your money to be invested by them, well lots of luck and don’t say I didn’t tell you. DT 😊
I don’t leave money with banks except checking. I get loans from Credit Unions. I froze my credit accounts over 2 years ago. Same line of thinking.
Just to top things off for the day:
Mcleod and Maguire. First up on youtube.
Doc, what is your opinion on Novo Resources (NSRPF) and on Fury Gold Mines, are they good ones to hold?